According to the survey, primary insurers currently expect a worst-case gross loss of approximately €8.2 billion, of which around €6.3 billion is reinsured – about €3.3 billion by reinsurers domiciled in Germany. Subtracting the €6.3 billion from the gross amount of €8.2 billion, the expected maximum net claims expenditure amounts to around €0.9 billion in the homeowner’s comprehensive insurance line and around €0.2 billion each in comprehensive contents insurance and motor own damage insurance. The remaining amount is spread among several other insurance lines, such as windstorm and business interruption insurance. The German reinsurers surveyed by BaFin currently expect a gross claims expenditure of around €4 billion in the worst case. Since these claims are also partly reinsured, the companies expect a maximum claims expenditure of approximately €1 billion net.

With regard to the solvency of the insurers surveyed, BaFin Chief Executive Director Dr Frank Grund gives the all-clear: "Although the coverage ratio is currently decreasing at many companies, the decline is in most cases only slight." From Grund’s point of view, the central message is that, despite sometimes substantial claims burdens, there are still no signs of a threat to the companies’ continued existence – among either insurers or reinsurers. Although the worst case estimates for gross claims expenditures are around 44% higher when compared with the first survey, this can be explained by the fact that insurers are now able to assess the claims more accurately. And if the portion of reinsured claims is taken into account, the increase is only 17%.
In its second survey, BaFin asked some 136 German property and casualty insurers, among others, for an estimation of the expected claims. The focus was on insurers that had indicated a claims burden from the flood disaster in the first ad hoc survey in July 2021. In addition, 28 reinsurers were also surveyed.